Betting on Politicians: A Gamble That Knows No Limits (Naked City)

There’s an old saying that many Australian would bet on two flies crawling up a wall. To modernise that, let’s put it in a gritty urban environment and call it two cockroaches slithering across a grubby bed sheet in a rundown motel. Regardless of the insects involved, it’s no secret that much of the population is obsessed with the ‘punt’ – be it pokies, lotteries, casinos, sports and racing – to name just a few of the ways you can do your hard earned dough.

Whilst limited to a few times a year, and perhaps lesser known, is our fascination in wagering on both Federal and State elections.

This coming Saturday for example, you could try both your luck and political judgement with a bet on the watershed Farrer by-election in southern NSW. There’s a distinct possibility that the One Nation candidate David Farley could win giving Pauline Hanson’s party their first seat in the Federal Lower House. Perish the thought!

Somewhat surprisingly, given Hanson’s recent media exposure and redneck rousing, the corporate bookies have the popular independent Michelle Milthorpe a slight favourite at $1.95, with the Hansonite David Farley breathing closely down her neck.

The problem with betting on political parties of course is that your heart might rule your decision, rather than a cold, calculated assessment of the various candidates. Regarding Pauline herself, I was thinking of approaching the bookies for the odds of her emulating the great Amelia Earhart in her recently acquired private plane – and I am not talking about circumnavigating the globe.

If that sounds somewhat absurd and maybe a tad hateful, you only have to look to the US-based, global leviathan Polymarket. It’s a betting site where you can wager on just about anything, from sports and pop culture to major international events. Fully legal in Trump’s America, it’s banned in a number of countries – including Australia, where ACMA has directed ISP providers to pull the plug following its failure to obtain the required gambling licence.

The company is cryptocurrency-based, meaning punters can deposit crypto through their blockchain network and trade shares in what are the possible outcomes of everything, from the likelihood of nuclear detonations during the current war in Iran, to the second coming of Jesus Christ in 2027.

You might ask whether the company currently has an ‘assassination’ market and the answer is definitely yes. Whether it’s Putin, Xi Jinping or Vladimir Zelensky, the speculators have the opportunity to predict if and when the famous might be knocked off.

However, the targets do not include Donald Trump – not surprising when you discover that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to and major investor in the company.

Whether we will ever get to trade our own Bitcoin on betting sites like Polymarket in Australia remains to be seen. It could be seductive if prediction companies like Kalshi, ForecastEX and Predictt were allowed to operate here, and you could unleash your innermost ‘wish’ demons.

This is all purely theoretical, no malice intended, but I would definitely be punting on:

• Barnaby Joyce falling flat on his face again in public, after a night out on the town.
• Aliens landing on Fraser Island and mistaking a pack of dingoes for human earthlings.
• Kyle Sandilands forfeiting his worldly possessions, torching his Roller and entering a monastery in Tibet.
• Tony Abbott and Mark Latham facing off in an onion eating contest.
• Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew) forgiven his sins and appointed King Of Moomba in Melbourne.
• Jeffrey Epstein found to be still alive and working as a naturopath and massage therapist in West Wyalong.

If you think all of the above is total nonsense, then check out the quagmire of bizarre prophecy and likely insider trading that these prediction sites encompass. When Trump met with UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer last year, some $1.3m was staked on the monosyllabic Donald using the word ‘hottest’. The punt was based on Trump’s constant use of words like ‘greatest’ and ‘biggest’. I would have thought a better bet was him pooping his pants at the meeting.

Even crazier was the market that opened on the question “will the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI?”. The possibility attracted some $3.16 million in cumulative stakes, but hey, well short of a trading volume of $55 million that JC would be back in 2017. If it all sounds too ridiculous to comprehend – and I am certainly struggling – maybe just keep it all very simple and grab a scratchie at your local newsagent.

Finally if you want to divorce yourself from the madness of gambling, mindless speculation and all the other evils that currently beset us, here’s an event coming up I thoroughly recommend. It’s a night celebrating the life and legacy of the late Sydney all round good guy Paris Pompor, who left us far too early about twelve months ago at the age of only 58.

Paris was one of the enduring voices on Sydney community radio with shows on FBi, Eastside and 2SER-FM. Together with life long friend and colleague Georgie Zuzak, he was a tireless promoter of music and film as well as their always innovative Groovescooter record label.

This Friday 8th at the Hive Bar in Erskineville, from 5.00pm to midnight, join DJs Soup, Jay Katz, Miss Death, Maxxxyt and Hober Mallow for a fitting tribute to Paris and an appropriate night of audio and spiritual enlightenment.