Sydney set to grow, despite doom and gloom

Think Sydney has its problems? You should see Brisbane…

So says economist, researcher and futurist Brian Haratsis, one of the speakers at the Urban Development Institute of Australia NSW State Conference last Friday. According to Mr Haratsis, despite the generally negative prognostications for NSW in recent times, Sydney is set to undergo significant growth between 2010 and 2015.

“While Sydney has problems, if you look at its major competition for population growth, it comes from Brisbane and south-east Queensland – and their problems are even worse,” he said. “People from Sydney have stopped going there because of infrastructure problems and ballooning house prices, whereas the median house price in Sydney is dropping.”

Mr Haratsis believes a number of indicators point towards Sydney’s expansion over the next five years. “The main drivers are our population growth, the increasing competitiveness within Sydney’s housing and job markets, and global demand for Australia’s resources,” he said.

Sydney’s population is growing at the rate of 1,000 people per week.

Most importantly, having been battered by the global crisis, Mr Haratsis said NSW’s financial sector would likely see a recovery over the next half-decade. “It’s largely this that will precipitate the growth spurt in Sydney,” he said. “The city now has the opportunity to emerge as a new world financial centre.”

On this point, Mr Haratsis believes the CBD Metro may provide at least one unintended consequence. “I see the CBD Metro as extending the inner west of Sydney and attracting white-collar professionals from overseas,” he said. “The fundamentals of city development will alter. The city will become much more regionalised – that won’t be the fault of any particular government, but global trade patterns.”

And what of the problems the city needs to resolve? “The first issue that really needs a fast resolution is expansion on the urban fringe, to allow for low-cost housing,” Mr Haratsis said. “It’s needed to capture ongoing economic opportunities – without that, there won’t be many opportunities.” He also cited the importance of completing the north-west and south-west heavy rail links.

In August, Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore emphasised the strategic position of cities in driving economic growth, as well as the critical role they had to play in addressing global warming. “We need a new collaborative approach based on partnerships on practical projects,” she said. “Targeted action in cities will have multiple benefits – stimulating the economy, creating green jobs, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and making cities more liveable. [It] could achieve a quarter of the Australian Government’s current unconditional commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by 2020.”