Population rates boom as cities compete to capitalise

BY EMMA KEMP

The Victorian Government deliberately competes with NSW for population growth share as a way to justify more extensive development in the city, according to an urban research expert.

Senior research fellow for the Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University, said Victoria views bigger numbers on its growth charts as a measure of Victoria’s economic viability and points to it as an indication of its ability to manage the state’s economy successfully.

“Of course, in reality, this quest is more to do with ‘capital widening’, or what I personally call ‘dumb growth’,” Dr Healy said. “That is, doing what we already do on an ever larger scale, rather than building a truly smarter economy, which does not necessarily involve or depend upon population growth.”

Sydney’s population will swell to almost 6 million people by 2036 ‘ a growth of 40 per cent ‘ the New South Wales state government said last week.

The boom will come thanks to migration and an increase in fertility rates, and Planning Minister Kristina said the city will need an extra 636,000 houses to cope with the increase.

Yet in early September the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) predicted it was Melbourne that would lead the charge, having more people than Sydney within 30 years.

The projections suggested Melbourne could grow from 3.8 million to 5.3 million by 2026 ‘ and by 2056 it could swell to almost 8 million, with Sydney then at 7.6 million.

Dr Healy said there is very little chance Melbourne could overtake Sydney in population.

“The 8 million figure is simply hyperbol,” he said, “a hyperthetical scenario that not even the Australian Bureau of Statistics gives any chance of becoming reality.

“When the ABS released its update of population projections earlier this year the most extreme scenario may have yielded a figure like this. But again, no one expects this to come to fruition.”

Dr Healy said that although Melbourne’s rate of population growth has increased due to more immigration as well as an unexpected increase in the total fertility rate, Sydney is still taking a large share of immigrant settlement and this is likely to remain the case for the forseeable future.

“Sydney’s larger population base compared to Melbourne will ensure that Sydney maintains a larger population than Melbourne for a long time,” he said.

Along with the expectation of a big boom for Sydney comes a renewed focus from the Government on how to ensure infrastructure can keep up with the swelling population.

In a speech to the Metropolis Women International Network Forum last week, Federal MP for Sydney and Minister for Housing, Tanya Plibersek, said the Government is undertaking an “unprecedented stock take of the nation’s infrastructure” and several new projects will begin construction next year.

“A focus on infrastructure will improve housing affordability, prevent water shortages, keep the lights on and the house warm and make it easier for people to get to and from work and leisure activities.”

Greens councillor Chris Harris said the city would have no trouble accommodating the extra people as long as the Government is prepared to borrow money.

“That’s what governments borrow for, to build public transport systems, and to provide system-wide facilities, public transport, renewable energy, those kinds of things,” Cr Harris said.

He said governments should be tapping into the superannuation being paid by employers every week and using the money to create infrastructure bonds.

But NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell said the State Government must encourage people to live in commuter belts outside the city ‘ such as the Hunter and the Illawarra ‘ if it is to cope with 6 million people.

“The only reason they would go there is because there’s opportunities for work. As it is now the jobs are in the city they’re not in the Hunter,” Cr Harris said

“You have to balance out the wisdom of sending people out to low density areas and just carving them up, if you do that there is going to be demand for blocks of land for them to build house.”

Cr Harris said the State Government should be looking to consolidate the existing developed areas of Sydney and Newcastle “to try and accommodate more people per square kilometre so that we can more efficiently and realistically provide better public services like public transport