Historic wins for Greens in Newtown and Balmain

WENDY BACON

Jenny Leong is the first Greens MP in any jurisdiction in Australia to win an election on primary votes, gaining a massive 56% of the vote in Saturday’s state election. This is a significant step forward for the Greens.

In Balmain, Kobi Shetty has been elected as the new Greens MP for Balmain. She fought off a strong challenge from Labor to win after long serving Jamie Parker retired from NSW Parliament. Labor’s candidate Philippa Scott conceded late on Monday.

Shetty described her win as an “historic victory…..This is the first time that the Greens have successfully had a Greens MP elected after the retirement of a sitting Greens member. It’s an exciting win.”  Jamie Parker was elected as the first Greens MP in NSW in 2011 after serving as a Councillor for 12 years on Leichhardt Council.

Labor threw large resources into Balmain in a determined attempt to win the seat. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, thousands of leaflets were distributed, large signs, text and voice messages sent, including from the Federal Environment Minister and MP for Sydney Tanya Plibersek, warning voters that that those voting Greens were risking an LNP Perrottet government. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese held a media conference, wrote a letter to voters and actively campaigned in Balmain. On Friday, Jenny Leong accused Labor of misrepresenting the facts, saying that Greens had categorically committed to supporting a minority Labor government. Late on Friday, a large signs were erected near Leichhardt Townhall, Kegworth School and other polling booths with a final warning message for unsure voters.

Although Albanese and Plibersek hold the Federal seats of Grayndler and Sydney respectively with healthy margins against the Greens, Federal Labor may fear it will battle to hold the seats in the future. The results last Saturday will have done nothing to lessen those fears and may have intensified them.

Shetty won the primary vote with 41.4 % of the vote, only a small 1.3 % swing away from Jamie Parker’s 2019 vote of 42.7 %.  The rest of Labor’s 7.2%  swing came from the Liberals,  Keep Sydney Open (no long exists) and other minor parties.

Currently on a two party preferred  margin of about 3%, a relieved Shetty attributed her win to “running a positive and clean campaign”. She said that the Balmain community wanted an MP who would “keep the Labor party on track in the new parliament: stand up for integrity, support action on climate and gambling reform – a committed member who is answerable to them not factions and special interests.”

Support for Leong sweeps across the Inner West

Leong won 32 of 33 election day booths including two previously Labor ones in Alexandria and Lewisham that were added to Newtown in a redistribution. She improved her margin from 46% of the primary vote in 2019 to 56%. Her vote was partly assisted by the short lived Keep Sydney Open party not running in this election. She has increased her two party preferred margin from 9.3% in 2015 to 13.8% in 2023.

On Saturday, a majority Labor government was reported as the likely result but by Tuesday morning, a minority government or at best a one or two seat majority government seemed likely. On Monday, three Independent MPs including the member for Sydney, Alex Greenwich guaranteed support for a minority government.

Leong said that Greens had always made it clear that they would support a Labor government but that whatever the result, “it’s not winner takes all. It’s a historically large cross bench. We saw when the previous LNP government lost their majority in the lower house, all of a sudden the possibility to pass through reforms and amendments changed. What we saw was a commitment to work collaboratively across the cross bench.”

“The Greens have an agenda and we are going to push that  …. The other thing to remember is sadly the corruption and the dodgy deals that happen in NSW do not change just because there is a change of government  …. We have seen many members over the last decade put to the cross bench or removed from the parliament. The numbers are tight. A change in the numbers, even slightly, can affect the power balance. The situation is not set for the next four years,” Leong predicted.

In the electorate of Summer Hill, which adjoins Newtown on its western side,  MP Jo Haylen won her seat very comfortably with a 53% primary vote. She is expected to become the Minister for Transport in the new government. She gained votes from the Liberals who lost 7.3 % of their vote. The result was that the Greens candidate youth worker Izabella Antoniou moved into second place with a swing to her of  5%. The Greens vote grew in Ashfield, an area where young people, who are being pushed out of other more expensive areas of the Inner West due to rising housing costs, are moving. On Sunday, Antoniou tweeted that there was no such thing as a safe seat: “This campaign was … driven by a vision of housing justice that looked to our shared future & saw us thriving in our communities. This is what people connected with. This fight is still ongoing because housing is a human right.”

Asked whether she held out any hope of First Nations woman Lynda-June Coe winning a third place in the Legislative Council along with herself and Albury GP Amanda Cohn, Greens MLC Cate Faerhmann said that it was only  “an outside chance … we are not ruling it out”. She said that with a long way to go in the counting of votes, she was hopeful of a progressive Upper House that could get action, including on climate, an end to native forest logging and the rental crisis.

Update: On Wednesday morning, NSW Labor had 46 seats, the LNP 31 with a cross bench of 3 Greens and 9  Independents.  Labor will get a majority government if it wins one of three undecided seats.

Wendy Bacon was previously the Professor of Journalism at UTS and supported the Greens in the 2023 NSW election.