Head will roll on Election Day

The state election promises to be exciting viewing for inner city voters as high profile heads look ready to roll.

Looking at the geographical footprint of Sydney today the seat of Sydney is an aberration of Independent yellow in a sea of  Labor red. Come March 26 analysts predict a tsunami of green will overwhelm the city and cost Labor some of its most senior scalps.

City News spoke to local pollster Ben Raue who runs The Tally Room, a blog dedicated to psephology in Australia, to get an expert’s opinion on the pre-election analysis.

Sydney:

Mr Raue describes Sydney as a four horse race but believes that sitting MP Clover Moore will “almost certainly remain” after the election, the Independent won a 7.2 per cent swing in the 2007 election gaining 39.6 per cent of the primary vote. She holds the seat with a 16.6 per cent margin over Labor.

More interesting than the winner, Mr Raue believes the competition for second will be hotly contested. He expects Labor will suffer a savage swing against them while the Liberals and the Greens will gain from Labor’s losses.

Balmain:

Home of the Education Minister Verity Firth, Labor face a tough battle against Leichardt Mayor Jamie Parker of the Greens. Currently Labor sits with a 3.7 per cent margin against the Greens.

The 2007 result saw 39.2 per cent of the primary vote falling to Labor with the Greens picking up 29.5 per cent, the Liberals ran a close third gaining 23.8 per cent.

“It is a heartland area for Labor and Verity Firth is a strong candidate that Labor wants to hold onto but the favourite is quite clearly the Greens,” Mr Raue said. “If the Labor vote collapses sufficiently the Liberals could come in the top two.”

Marrickville:

Marrickville has striking similarities to Balmain – both have slim margins if the swings which are predicted do occur and both face a local Mayors and Greens opponents. The seat is held by Carmel Tebbutt the Deputy Premier and Health Minister with a 7.5 per cent margin over the Greens candidate and Mayor of Marrickville Fiona Byrne.

2007 saw 46.6 per cent of the primary vote go to Labor with the Greens gaining 32.5 per cent, on the two-party-preferred result the ALP won 57.5 per cent and the Greens won 42.5 per cent.

“A 7.5 per cent swing is definitely within the range of swings that the Labor party is expected to suffer, if those swings are reflected in Marrickville then it shouldn’t be too hard for the Greens to win the seat,” Mr Raue said.

“It is being fought very hard by Labor, Carmel Tebbutt is the Deputy Premier, she is a very prominent figure particularly in the Labor left and I don’t think it’s as simple to predict a Labor/Greens seat on a 7.5 per cent margin as it is a Labor/Liberals seat.”

Heffron:

Labor stronghold held by embattled Premier Kristina Keneally with 56.4 per cent of the primary vote, the Liberals hold 21.8 per cent and the Greens hold 19.7 per cent.

“Heffron is interesting because on paper it looks really safe for Labor but if you look closely at the figures that doesn’t seem so clear,” he said. “Keneally holds the seat with a very large margin, but if she gets a 20 per cent swing, which is quite possible with the current polls and that brings her down to 36 per cent it could get quite interesting.”

Mr Raue believes that Labor will hold on but Heffron will be transformed into a Labor/Greens contest much like Balmain and Marrickville are now.