“Daily Telegraph” twists statistics to attack safe injecting centre

The Daily Telegraph continued its campaign against the Medically Supervised Injecting Centre (MSIC) with a story on 5 January by Kelvin Bissett, who wrote:

‘The Kings Cross safe injecting centre made no difference at all to overdose death rates in its local area in its first five years of operation.

‘Statistics show death rates from drug overdose in the area around the injecting room are no less than in other areas across NSW.

‘The report assessed overdose deaths from heroin, morphine and other opioids in those postcodes – 2010 and 2011 – near the injecting centre and concluded that deaths rates fell at the same rate they did elsewhere in NSW.’

Ah, statistics. Simply by combining the two postcodes Bissett conveys a convenient distortion that obscures the truth.

Consider other statistics recently published in this paper – ones that Bissett also had access to:

‘…zero deaths from 2,476 overdoses at the Centre is a pretty good score. Before the MSIC the area averaged two deaths per week. Between four and ten per cent of overdoses elsewhere result in death. Draw your own conclusions.’

Simple maths, based on the most conservative measure of four percent of overdoses resulting in death, indicates 100 deaths probably averted.

and

‘There were 355 ambulance call-outs to overdoses in the Kings Cross strip alone in one year before the Centre opened. Now, while the heroin drought has reduced ambo callouts generally, they have dropped 80% in the MSIC’s 2011 postcode but only 45% in neighbouring 2010.’

Parts of 2010 postcode are several suburbs away from the MSIC, and a junkie who is hanging out for the next hit does not walk several suburbs. Edgecliff in 2027 postcode is closer to the centre than much of 2010. Where are the Edgecliff stats, Mr Bissett’

But statistics obscure the human truth. In the words of one worker at the centre: ‘When someone is on the ground turning blue and you bring them around, you know you’ve saved a life.’

Another fact Bissett and his ilk ignore is that the Centre is closed every night so its services are available only half the time.

MSIC Director Dr Marianne Jauncey points out more subtle statistical problems with Bissett’s claims.

‘With an average these days of one death per month in the combined postcodes, the samples are far too small to be statistically significant.

‘Ambulance callouts are far more frequent and so are a much more reliable measure,’ she said.

‘Attempts to discredit MSIC by claiming improvements are just down to the ‘heroin drought’ also don’t make sense. Drops in supply are naturally felt more in areas distant from areas of concentrated use, while places such as Kings Cross and Cabramatta tend to maintain availability to a greater degree.

‘So you would expect the overdose death rates to fall far more in areas which have a lower drug supply, like rural and remote regions. It’s  not expected that they would fall the same amount in Kings Cross, and that actually confirms we’re really doing something right here,’ she said.

Critics of the MSIC have also claimed its zero death rate is because critical clients are shipped to hospital to die there.

‘That has simply never happened ‘ said Dr Jauncey.

‘Clients are well monitored here and in most cases oxygen is all that’s required to revive someone. More severe cases respond to a small injection of Narcan. Ambulances are called extremely rarely, and only when there are complications from other medical conditions.’

Frontline social workers say asthma sometimes complicates cases of overdose.

The Telegraph has conducted an unrelenting campaign against the MSIC since its opening despite being proved seriously wrong in past allegations. Last year the journal ran photographs of a bin full of syringes in the lane behind the Centre, claiming they were used and had been dumped in the street by the MSIC.

Investigations showed the syringes were unused and had been discarded elsewhere by a person with a diabetic cat, and were not even the same brand as those used at the Centre.

Fred Nile MLC had another go last year, posing outside the Centre with a two-metre mockup of a syringe. At the last state election opposition leader Peter Debnam made closure of the Centre his first priority if elected. Radical anti-drug group Drug Free Australia, funded by the Howard Government, letterboxed a glossy leaflet, ‘The case for closure’ in residential areas around the Centre.

Despite these campaigns, three local surveys have shown 70%’80% support for the Centre. Many residents and business owners recognise that the Centre improves the amenity of Kings Cross by reducing street injecting and reducing the number of unconscious or dead people they are likely to encounter on the street.

Police target drugs intensively in the area, but as a previous Kings Cross Commander said, ‘For every dealer we put behind bars, another eight pop up to replace them.’

Most drug detections in the area were for cannabis or ecstasy.

The Australian Crime Authority recently dramatically increased its estimate of the size of Australia’s black market drug economy from hundreds of millions to between $4 billion and $12 billion, tending towards the higher figure.

The MSIC, established on the recommendation of the 1999 NSW Drugs Summit, is permitted on only a ‘trial basis’ by the NSW Government.