Victoria Road modelling ‘flawed’

Announcements of massive losses on the Lane Cove tunnel project have prompted fresh concerns about the viability of the Victoria Road upgrade, with opponents saying the same flawed modelling methodology was employed for the Inner West Busway.

Investors in the Lane Cove tunnel have lost a combined $1 billion on the $1.6 billion project, with traffic volumes less than half those estimated. Spokesperson for the Victoria Road Community Committee, Alex Elliott, said the RTA had failed to change its modelling processes despite much evidence of its flaws.

“The NSW Government and the RTA have used the same modelling in the Cross City and Lane Cove tunnels, to determine the viability of the Victoria Road upgrade,” he said. “The modelling indicates that there will be an average saving in bus travel times of 4 minutes and 22 seconds. If the modelling proves inaccurate, as it has in the past, there will be no benefit to the users of buses on Victoria Road.”

Mr Elliott said he the Committee had participated in numerous discussions with the RTA and former Roads Minister Michael Daley, but had been repeatedly assured the modelling was “fine”.

“My concern is, once a number of these projects fail, like the Cross-City Tunnel and the Lane Cove Tunnel, people are reluctant to invest. It is only when the project is completed the modelling is revealed to be wrong, and the taxpayer is left to pick up the tab, since no private investor is going to invest further.”