Preferences will decide Coogee

The seat of Coogee will be one to watch at the next state election on March 26.

Labor Coogee MP Paul Pearce was endorsed unopposed last Friday, following the close of nominations on October 12. He has represented Coogee since 2003 but the anticipated backlash against Labor could unseat him.

“It’s going to be very, very close. The primary problem is that there’s likely to be a very big swing against Labor,” he said.

“The other concern is the likelihood that the Liberals will top the primary vote but will I get the Greens preferences if I finish second? There’s no indication yet that the Greens will preference me.”

Individual members of the local Eastern Suburbs Greens (Waverley/Woollahra) have indicated they think the Greens should preference Mr Pearce but Randwick/Botany Greens are reluctant to lock in a decision just yet.

“The Randwick Green mayor was elected on Liberal preferences and I suspect a deal has been done,” Mr Pearce said.

“If they run their vote dead and don’t indicate a preference, and their voters don’t, the seat will be won by a Liberal.”

Mr Pearce predicts the Liberal candidate Bruce Notley-Smith will secure around 41 per cent of the primary vote and Labor and the Greens together will poll in the high 50s giving them a clear majority. He predicts Labor will poll about 31 per cent of the primary vote and the Greens 26 or 27 per cent.

“The Randwick/Botany Greens think they can win the seat – they’re wrong. Even if they finish second and Labor comes in third, there’s no way they’d attract enough preferences to get the Greens over the line ahead of the Liberals,” he said.

“People at the southern end of the seat of Coogee are fairly conservative and would be unlikely to preference the Greens even if we direct our preferences their way.”

He said it was in the interests of left of centre parties to preference each other.

“If we don’t exchange preferences it’ll be bad news and give the seat to the Liberals.
I think our primary vote has fallen to such an extent that of course I’m nervous. If there’s a swing of 10 to 15 per cent, a personal vote won’t block that,” Mr Pearce said.

Woollahra Greens David Shoebridge, the lead upper house candidate for the Greens, said many hard decisions would have to be made at the next state election, and Coogee would be among them.

“The rule across NSW is that local groups decide the preferences and the general practice is that they’ll make the decision based on principle rather than tactical advantage when all candidates have declared,” said. “That won’t happen until much closer to the election and definitely not before Christmas.”

Greens candidate for Coogee Sue Doran said preferences were on the agenda but not until all the candidates were known.

“It will be a tricky consideration for us. It’s a really long shot for the Greens to win Coogee but it’s a possibility and I’m getting a lot of positive feedback in the community,” she said.

Ms Doran said Mr Pearce was very popular and he and Liberal candidate Bruce Notley-Smith had both done a lot for the community.

Both Ms Doran and Mr Notley-Smith denied a preference deal had been done based on the Randwick mayoralty.

“There’ll be negotiations by head office, in discussion with me, on preferences but that’s quite a way off,” Mr Notley-Smith said.

“Coogee is a very tough seat. The last time the Liberals won it was in 1973 and we didn’t hang on to it. It’ll be a very difficult task to win it but I’ve been working hard to convince people that a change in Coogee is necessary to bring about a change in NSW. To win government we will need to win 10 seats and Coogee is the 10th most marginal seat.”