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The NSW government has released updated climate change projections which warn of increasing temperatures for all regions across the state.
According to the state government’s climate change projections, even under a low emissions scenario, NSW can expect an additional 15 days above 35°C each year by 2090.
The projections indicate an urgent need for enhanced emissions reductions and informed planning to improve the resilience of households, communities, and businesses against climate change impacts, including extreme weather events.
About NARCliM 2.0
The NARCliM2.0 project (NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling project) will deliver 150 years of climate data, from 1951 to 2100, featuring historical records and future projections.
NARCliM 2.0 provides insights into projected climate changes for regions across NSW and the ACT, both short-term and long-term. Its goal is to support communities, businesses, and governments in preparing for current and future climate-impact events.
It incorporates the latest global greenhouse gas emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP3-7.0) emissions forecasts, with additional data for a third scenario (SSP2-4.5) expected in 2025.
Increased Warnings For NSW Climate Change
Last October, the NSW Government introduced a landmark climate change bill to protect emissions reduction targets law in NSW and establish an independent Net Zero Commission.
The Climate Change (Net Zero Future) Bill 2023 aimed to solidify the state’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, pledging to cut emissions by a minimum of 50 percent by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Compared to the climate baseline from 1990-2009, NSW is projected to warm by 1.2°C by 2050 and 1.3°C by 2090 under a low-emissions scenario, and by 2°C by 2050. Under a high emissions scenario, temperatures could increase by an alarming 4°C by 2090, with up to 45 days exceeding 35°C.
This stark contrast highlights the critical need for both local and global actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving net zero by 2050 is crucial to mitigating adverse effects on health, the environment, and the economy.
We Must Act Now
Minister for Climate Change and the Environment Penny Sharpe emphasised the need to tackle emissions immediately, “The data shows two clear options – we can do nothing which will lock in more extreme weather events in the future, or we can reduce emissions now to play our part in limiting the damage.”
NARCliM 2.0 projects that by the year 2100, NSW can expect:
- increased average temperatures in all parts of NSW, with the greatest rises inland,
- more hot days of 35°C and above for all regions across the state,
- fewer cold nights below 2°C, particularly along the Great Dividing Range, and
- more extreme weather events including severe fire weather days for all of NSW by 2050.
Minister Sharpe stated that the latest NARCliM 2.0 would be beneficial for government agencies, businesses and farmers enabling them to access updated climate projections and make informed decisions for climate adaptation.
“This data will help protect critical infrastructure including hospitals, transport networks, dams and energy systems from climate change impacts such as extreme heat, fires, and floods,” Minister Sharpe said.
“The Minns Labor Government is taking strong action on climate change to reduce emissions, make our communities and environment more resilient to extreme weather events, and ensure our economy is strong, robust and built on local, secure jobs,” she added.
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